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Record W2741148953 · doi:10.1097/acm.0000000000001794

More on the Causes of Errors in Clinical Reasoning

2017· letter· en· W2741148953 on OpenAlexaffabout
Pat Croskerry

Bibliographic record

VenueAcademic Medicine · 2017
Typeletter
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicClinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills
Canadian institutionsDalhousie University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsCognitive biasCognitionConfirmation biasPsychologyNormativeRationalityCognitive psychologyPerspective (graphical)OddsIrrational numberScrutinyDebiasingSocial psychologyPositive economicsEpistemologyMedicineLawPsychiatryPolitical scienceComputer scienceEconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

To the Editor: The Perspective by Norman and colleagues1 is at odds with the literature on rationality in decision making. Efforts to devalue cognitive bias by claiming the effects have only been demonstrated in undergraduates should be put to rest. Leading cognitive scientists describe such claims as “nonsense,”2 and Kahneman himself dismissed the notion as “cartoonish.”3 Widespread deviations from normative decision making, experimentally demonstrated over the last 40 years, have been replicated many times over in representative populations.2 Cognitive biases are real, abundant, and a major problem in clinical decision making. To deny their existence is irrational. Early in the article a straw man is erected by attributing clinical reasoning errors to either a lack of medical knowledge or to cognitive bias. Several studies have found cognitive failings are more likely due to how physicians think rather than what they know, and most clinicians confirm this is what happens in practice. Throughout the article, findings from a variety of studies are interpreted in a biased fashion. Demonstrations of the impact of cognitive bias on medical decision making are minimized or ignored. Major reviews are omitted, and there is a puzzling acquiescence by coauthors to discount their own published demonstrations of cognitive biases. The potential of cognitive bias mitigation (CBM) strategies is also minimized, and erroneous statements are made. An article of mine is cited to support their statement that “evidence is consistent in demonstrating that such strategies have no or limited effectiveness.”1 In fact, I was saying the opposite. In contrast to the view presented in this Perspective,1 a recent systematic review of 28 studies in CBM and dual process thinking led the authors to conclude, “Results to date are promising and this relatively young field is now close to a point where these kinds of cognitive interventions can be recommended to educators.”4 To delay this important initiative to reduce diagnostic failure would be unconscionable and unethical. Pat Croskerry, MD, PhDProfessor, Department of Emergency Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada; [email protected]

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.012
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.115
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Commentary · Consensus signal: Commentary
Teacher disagreement score0.020
Threshold uncertainty score0.066

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0120.115
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0020.001
Bibliometrics0.0030.002
Science and technology studies0.0020.004
Scholarly communication0.0060.010
Open science0.0040.002
Research integrity0.0200.025
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0190.005

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.123
GPT teacher head0.452
Teacher spread0.329 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreCommentary

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations5
Published2017
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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