Impacts of US Monetary Normalisation on Corporate Bond Market in Emerging Asia
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper studies the potential impacts of US monetary normalisation on the emerging Asian corporate bond market, which has experienced explosive growth in recent years and become a crucial source of financing for the regional corporate sector. After controlling for global and economy-specific variables, we find that increase in US Treasury yields has the effects of reducing issuance, though only moderately, and shortening tenor in the corporate bond markets in emerging Asia. While no direct impact of US Treasury on corporate bond pricing is found, there is likely to be an indirect impact through domestic sovereign bond yields, in light of the significant pass-through from domestic sovereign to corporate bond yields, as well as evidence found on the pass-through from US Treasury yields to sovereign yields in the region in previous studies.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it