Modeling the transmission and control of Zika in Brazil
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, started spread across Central and Southern America and more recently to North America. The most serious impacted country is Brazil. Based on the transmission mechanism of the virus and assessment of the limited data on the reported suspected cases, we establish a dynamical model which allows us to estimate the basic reproduction number R 0 = 2.5020. The wild spreading of the virus make it a great challenge to public health to control and prevention of the virus. We formulate two control models to study the impact of releasing transgenosis mosquitoes (introducing bacterium Wolbachia into Aedes aegypti ) on the transmission of Zika virus in Brazil. Our models and analysis suggest that simultaneously releasing Wolbachia-harboring female and male mosquitoes will achieve the target of population replacement, while releasing only Wolbachia-harboring male mosquitoes will suppress or even eradicate wild mosquitoes eventually. We conclude that only releasing male Wolbachia mosquitoes is a better strategy for control the spreading of Zika virus in Brazil.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".