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Record W2745085749 · doi:10.5539/ijef.v9n9p60

Will Rising Debt in China Lead to a Hard Landing?

2017· article· en· W2745085749 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Wang Man Cang, Zhou Ming Matt

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Economics and Finance · 2017
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicFiscal Policies and Political Economy
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersWorld Bank Group
KeywordsEconomicsDebtDebt-to-GDP ratioGovernment debtInternal debtGranger causalityDowngradeRevenueMonetary economicsExternal debtGovernment (linguistics)Debt levels and flowsChinaMacroeconomicsFinanceGeographyEconometrics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Moody has recently downgraded China's sovereign debt, which's Moody's first downgrade for the country since 1989. The objective of this study is to get an insight into the local and regional government debt in China, analyze the key factors, and evaluate the economic risks. Based on the published data since 1996, the granger causality test is performed to find out the relationship between local government debt level, the fiscal income, GDP growth rate and CPI. Some major findings are: i) local government debt is accumulated through more spending on economic development and less funding obtained from the revenue sharing scheme between governments. ii) fiscal income and GDP growth rate have positive impact on the increase of local government debt. iii) CPI increase shows negative impact on the local government debt. It’s projected that in the coming years, slower growth and less income with a stable CPI could slow down debt accumulation. The Chinese government should monitor the risk factors closely and use risk mitigation tools to avoid a hard landing.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.608
Threshold uncertainty score0.495

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.026
GPT teacher head0.255
Teacher spread0.229 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2017
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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