A twenty-first century foreign policy for Canada in the Middle East and North Africa
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The security crises facing the Middle East and North Africa are among the most complex and volatile in the world today. These protracted conflicts are shaped by a range of catalysts, including state failure, environmental stress, entrenched criminal war economies, ethnic and tribal hostilities, and ideological extremism. Not only are these highly fragmented conflicts, but the multiple actors in each of these theatres also have transnational linkages that trigger contagion effects across state borders. To understand these new twenty-first century security crises, scholars and policy practitioners alike require modern analytical tools. Gone are the days when Canadian foreign policy experts could rely on classic state-based models to explain and predict global violence. To address these contemporary challenges, Canada must adopt a forward-looking approach to the Middle East and North Africa, which does not shy away from the compound and multidimensional challenges that these complex environments present.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.033 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.007 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".