Incidence of Previously Undiagnosed Atrial Fibrillation Using Insertable Cardiac Monitors in a High-Risk Population
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Importance: In approximately 20% of atrial fibrillation (AF)-related ischemic strokes, stroke is the first clinical manifestation of AF. Strategies are needed to identify and therapeutically address previously undetected AF. Objective: To quantify the incidence of AF in patients at high risk for but without previously known AF using an insertable cardiac monitor. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, single-arm, multicenter study was conducted from November 2012 to January 2017. Visits took place at 57 centers in the United States and Europe. Patients with a CHADS2 score of 3 or greater (or 2 with at least 1 additional risk factor) were enrolled. Approximately 90% had nonspecific symptoms potentially compatible with AF, such as fatigue, dyspnea, and/or palpitations. Exposures: Patients underwent monitoring with an insertable cardiac monitor for 18 to 30 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was adjudicated AF lasting 6 or more minutes and was assessed at 18 months. Other analyses included detection rates at points from 30 days to 30 months and among CHADS2 score subgroups. Median time from insertion to detection and the percentage of patients subsequently prescribed oral anticoagulation therapy was also determined. Results: A total of 446 patients were enrolled; 233 (52.2%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 71.5 (9.9) years. A total of 385 patients (86.3%) received an insertable cardiac monitor, met the primary analysis cohort definition, and were observed for a mean (SD) period of 22.5 (7.7) months. The detection rate of AF lasting 6 or more minutes at 18 months was 29.3%. Detection rates at 30 days and 6, 12, 24, and 30 months were 6.2%, 20.4%, 27.1%, 33.6%, and 40.0%, respectively. At 18 months, AF incidence was similar among patients with CHADS2 scores of 2 (24.7%; 95% CI, 17.3-31.4), 3 (32.7%; 95% CI, 23.8-40.7), and 4 or greater (31.7%; 95% CI, 22.0-40.3) (P = .23). Median (interquartile) time from device insertion to first AF episode detection was 123 (41-330) days. Of patients meeting the primary end point, 13 (10.2%) had 1 or more episodes lasting 24 hours or longer, and oral anticoagulation therapy was prescribed for 72 patients (56.3%). Conclusions and Relevance: The incidence of previously undiagnosed AF may be substantial in patients with risk factors for AF and stroke. Atrial fibrillation would have gone undetected in most patients had monitoring been limited to 30 days. Further trials regarding the value of detecting subclinical AF and of prophylactic therapies are warranted. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01727297.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it