Global invasion network of the brown marmorated stink bug, Halyomorpha halys
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Human mediated transportation into novel habitats is a prerequisite for the establishment of non-native species that become invasive, so knowledge of common sources may allow prevention. The brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) is an East Asian species now established across North America and Europe, that in the Eastern United States of America (US) and Italy is causing significant economic losses to agriculture. After US populations were shown to originate from Northern China, others have tried to source BMSB populations now in Canada, Switzerland, Italy, France, Greece, and Hungary. Due to selection of different molecular markers, however, integrating all the datasets to obtain a broader picture of BMSB's expansion has been difficult. To address this limitation we focused on a single locus, the barcode region in the cytochrome oxidase I mitochondrial gene, and analyzed representative BMSB samples from across its current global range using an Approximate Bayesian Computation approach. We found that China is the likely source of most non-native populations, with at least four separate introductions in North America and three in Europe. Additionally, we found evidence of one bridgehead event: a likely Eastern US source for the central Italy populations that interestingly share enhanced pest status.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it