Incorporating Appliance Usage Patterns for Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring and Load Forecasting
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes a novel non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) method which incorporates appliance usage patterns (AUPs) to improve performance of active load identification and forecasting. In the first stage, the AUPs of a given residence were learned using a spectral decomposition based standard NILM algorithm. Then, learnt AUPs were utilized to bias the priori probabilities of the appliances through a specifically constructed fuzzy system. The AUPs contain likelihood measures for each appliance to be active at the present instant based on the recent activity/inactivity of appliances and the time of day. Hence, the priori probabilities determined through the AUPs increase the active load identification accuracy of the NILM algorithm. The proposed method was successfully tested for two standard databases containing real household measurements in USA and Germany. The proposed method demonstrates an improvement in active load estimation when applied to the aforementioned databases as the proposed method augments the smart meter readings with the behavioral trends obtained from AUPs. Furthermore, a residential power consumption forecasting mechanism, which can predict the total active power demand of an aggregated set of houses, 5 min ahead of real time, was successfully formulated and implemented utilizing the proposed AUP based technique.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it