The hemorrhagic transformation index score: a prediction tool in middle cerebral artery ischemic stroke
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop a tool, the hemorrhagic transformation (HT) index (HTI), to predict any HT within 14 days after middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke onset regardless of the intravenous recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (IV rtPA) use. That is especially important in the light of missing evidence-based data concerning the timing of anticoagulant resumption after stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 783 consecutive MCA stroke patients. Clinical and brain imaging data at admission were recorded. A follow-up period was 2 weeks after admission. The patients were divided into derivation (DC) and validation (VC) cohorts by generating Bernoulli variates with probability parameter 0.7. Univariate/multivariate logistic regression, and factor analysis were used to extract independent predictors. Validation was performed with internal consistency reliability and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Bootstrapping was used to reduce bias. RESULTS: The HTI was composed of 4 items: Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score (ASPECTS), National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), hyperdense MCA (HMCA) sign, and AF on electrocardiogram (ECG) at admission. According to the predicted probability (PP) range, scores were allocated to ASPECTS as follows: 10-7 = 0; 6-5 = 1; 4-3 = 2; 2-0 = 3; to NIHSS: 0-11 = 0; 12-17 = 1; 18-23 = 2; >23 = 3; to HMCA sign: yes = 1; to AF on ECG: yes = 1. The HTI score varied from 0 to 8. For each score, adjusted PP of any HT with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was as follows: 0 = 0.027 (0.011-0.042); 1 = 0.07 (0.043-0.098); 2 = 0.169 (0.125-0.213); 3 = 0.346 (0.275-0.417); 4 = 0.571 (0.474-0.668); 5 = 0.768 (0.676-0.861); 6 = 0.893 (0.829-0.957); 7 = 0.956 (0.92-0.992); 8 = 0.983 (0.965-1.0). The optimal cutpoint score to differentiate between HT-positive and negative groups was 2 (95% normal-based CI, 1-3) for the DC and VC alike. ROC area/sensitivity/specificity with 95% normal-based CI for the DC and VC were 0.85 (0.82-0.89)/0.82 (0.73-0.9)/0.89 (0.8-0.97) and 0.83 (0.78-0.88)/0.8 (0.66-0.94)/0.87 (0.73-1.0) respectively. McDonald's categorical omega with 95% bias-corrected and accelerated CI for the DC and VC was 0.81 (0.77-0.84) and 0.82 (0.76-0.86) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The HTI is a simple yet reliable tool to predict any HT within 2 weeks after MCA stroke onset regardless of the IV rtPA use.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".