Grandes tendencias políticas y sociales de interés para la seguridad y la defensa. Perspectivas europeas y norteamericanas. Javier Jordán Enamorado
Bibliographic record
Abstract
espanolEste informe se enmarca en el Programa Trabajos de Futuro, liderado por el Instituto Espanol de Estudios Estrategicos (IEEE), con el apoyo del Centro Conjunto de Desarrollo de Conceptos (CCDC). El informe ofrece un estado de la cuestion sobre los estudios prospectivos en materia de seguridad y defensa elaborados por la Alianza Atlantica, la Union Europea y distintos organismos vinculados a los Ministerios de Defensa de Alemania, Canada, Espana, Estados Unidos, Francia, Italia y Reino Unido. Se trata de trabajos que pretenden identificar, analizar y prever la evolucion de las tendencias globales que afectaran a la estabilidad y seguridad global en el largo plazo, en un horizonte temporal que, dependiendo del documento, oscila entre 2030 y 2045. El informe centra su atencion en las grandes tendencias politicas y sociales con impacto en los de ambitos militar y de Defensa. El informe aporta una revision de los resultados de esos trabajos, senalando sus similitudes, diferencias y visiones complementarias, asi como eventuales limitaciones y puntos de mejora. Previamente el informe introduce al lector en la naturaleza de este tipo de documentos y en las metodologias empleadas para su elaboracion. EnglishThis report is part of the Future Work Program, led by the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies (IEEE), with the support of the Joint Conceptual Development Center (CCDC). The report presents a state of the art of prospective studies on security and defense prepared by the Atlantic Alliance, the European Union and the Ministries of Defense of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the United Kingdom. These works aim to identify, analyze and predict the evolution of global trends that will affect global stability and security in the long term, in a time horizon that, depending on the document, ranges between 2030 and 2045. The report focuses on major political and social trends with an impact on the military and Defense sectors. The report provides a critical synthesis of the results of these works, pointing out their similarities, differences and complementary visions, as well as possible limitations and improvement points. Previously, the article introduces the reader to the nature of this type of document and to the methodologies used for its elaboration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.008 | 0.009 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.012 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".