Online Bayesian Transfer Learning for Sequential Data Modeling
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We consider the problem of inferring a sequence of hidden states associated with a sequence of observations produced by an individual within a population. Instead of learning a single sequence model for the population (which does not account for variations within the population), we learn a set of basis sequence models based on different individuals. The sequence of hidden states for a new individual is inferred in an online fashion by estimating a distribution over the basis models that best explain the sequence of observations of this new individual. We explain how to do this in the context of hidden Markov models with Gaussian mixture models that are learned based on streaming data by online Bayesian moment matching. The resulting transfer learning technique is demonstrated with three real-word applications: activity recognition based on smartphone sensors, sleep classification based on electroencephalography data and the prediction of the direction of future packet flows between a pair of servers in telecommunication networks.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it