Reconciling the opposing effects of warming on phytoplankton biomass in 188 large lakes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Lake ecosystems are deeply integrated into local and regional economies through recreation, tourism, and as sources of food and drinking water. Shifts in lake phytoplankton biomass, which are mediated by climate warming will alter these benefits with potential cascading effects on human well-being. The metabolic theory of ecology suggests that warming reduces lake phytoplankton biomass as basal metabolic costs increase, but this hypothesis has not been tested at the global scale. We use satellite-based estimates of lake surface temperature (LST) and lake surface chlorophyll-a concentration (chl-a; as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass) in 188 of the world's largest lakes from 2002-2016 to test for interannual associations between chl-a and LST. In contrast to predictions from metabolic ecology, we found that LST and chl-a were positively correlated in 46% of lakes (p < 0.05). The associations between LST and chl-a depended on lake trophic state; warming tended to increase chl-a in phytoplankton-rich lakes and decrease chl-a in phytoplankton-poor lakes. We attribute the opposing responses of chl-a to LST to the effects of temperature on trophic interactions, and the availability of resources to phytoplankton. These patterns provide insights into how climate warming alters lake ecosystems on which millions of people depend for their livelihoods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".