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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Valery L. Feigin, Emma Nichols, Shazia Alam, Marlena S. Bannick, Ettore Beghi, Natacha Blake, William J. Culpepper, E. Ray Dorsey, Alexis Elbaz, Richard G. Ellenbogen, James L. Fisher, Christina Fitzmaurice, Giorgia Giussani, Linda Glennie, Spencer L James, Catherine O. Johnson, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Giancarlo Logroscino, Benôıt Marin, W Cliff Mountjoy-Venning, Minh Nguyen, Richard Ofori‐Asenso, Anoop P. Patel, Marco Piccininni, Gregory A. Roth, Timothy J. Steiner, Lars Jacob Stovner, Cassandra Szoeke, Alice Theadom, Mitchell T. Wallin, Claire Wright, Joseph R. Zunt, Nooshin Abbasi, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Victor Aboyans, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Dilaram Acharya, Abdu A. Adamu, Oladimeji Adebayo, Abiodun M. Adeoye, José Carmelo Adsuar, Mohsen Afarideh, Sutapa Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Rufus Akinyemi, Nadia Akseer, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Rustam Al‐Shahi Salman, Fares Alahdab, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Nahla Anber, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Johan Ärnlöv, Hamid Asayesh, Rana Jawad Asghar, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Ashish Awasthi, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Ayuk Betrand Tambe, Alaa Badawi, Maciej Banach, Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub, Miguel A. Barboza, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Bernhard T. Baune, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Abate Bekele Belachew, Derrick Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adugnaw Berhane, Mircea Beuran, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Belete Biadgo, Ali Bijani, Nigus Bililign, Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed, Christopher Kynrint Blazes, Carol Brayne, Zahid A Butt, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Carlos Cantú‐Brito, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan Jesús Carrero, Félix Carvalho, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Ester Cerin, Yazan Chaiah, Jung‐Chen Chang, Irini Chatziralli, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam J Christopher, Cyrus Cooper, Paolo Angelo Cortesi, Vera Marisa Costa, Michael H Criqui, Christopher S. Crowe, Albertino Damasceno, Ahmad Daryani, Vanessa De la Cruz‐Góngora, Fernando de la Hoz, Diego De Leo, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Kebede Deribe, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Daniel Díaz, Mesfin Tadese Dinberu, Shirin Djalalinia, David Teye Doku, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Eyasu Ejeta Duken, David Edvardsson, Ziad El‐Khatib, Matthias Endres, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Sadaf Esteghamati, Farzaneh Farhadi, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Mohammad Hosein Farzaei, Batool Fatima, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Garumma Tolu Feyissa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Takeshi Fukumoto, Morsaleh Ganji, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Miguel Ángel García-Gordillo, Abadi Kahsu Gebre, Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Demeke Geremew, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Maryam Ghasemi‐Kasman, Mahari Y Gidey, Paramjit Gill, Tiffany K Gill, Efrata Tufa Girma, E. V. Gnedovskaya, Alessandra C. Goulart, Ayman Grada, Giuseppe Grosso, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Tekleberhan B Hagos, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Randah R Hamadeh, Samer Hamidi, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Josep María Haro, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Mohamed Hegazy, Behnam Heidari, Andualem Henok, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Chi Linh Hoang, Michael K. Hole, Enayatollah Homaie Rad, Guoqing Hu, Ehimario Igumbor, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Mehdi Javanbakht, Ravi Prakash Jha, Yash Jobanputra, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Amaha Kahsay, Yogeshwar Kalkonde, Teshome Abegaz Kamil, Tanuj Kanchan, Manoochehr Karami, André Karch, Narges Karimi, Amir Kasaeian, Tesfaye Kassa, Zemenu Yohannes Kassa, Anil Kaul, Adane Teshome Kefale, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Habibolah Khazaie, Ali Kiadaliri, Daniel N Kiirithio, Daniel Kim, Young‐Eun Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kısa, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Ai Koyanagi, Rita Krishnamurthi, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Manasi Kumar, Ben Lacey, Alessandra Lafranconi, Van Charles Lansingh, Arman Latifi, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Shanshan Li, Yu Liao, Shai Linn, Warren Lo, Alan D Lopez, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Robyn Lucas, Raimundas Lunevičius, Mark T. Mackay, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Navid Manafi, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, LG Mantovani, Winfried März, Tivani P. Mashamba-Thompson, Benjamin B. Massenburg, Kedar Mate, Colm McAlinden, John J. McGrath, Varshil Mehta, Toni Meier, Hagazi Gebre Meles, Addisu Melese, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Tomislav Meštrović, Bartosz Miazgowski, Tomasz Miazgowski, Ted R. Miller, GK Mini, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Babak Moazen, Bahram Mohajer, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Maryam Mohammadi‐Khanaposhtani, Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh, Mousa Mohammadnia‐Afrouzi, Shafiu Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Stefania Mondello, Yoshan Moodley, Mahmood Moosazadeh, Ghobad Moradi, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Mehdi Moradinazar, Paula Moraga, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Shane D. Morrison, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Oumer Sada Muhammed, Walter Muruet-Gutierrez, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Mehdi Naderi, Gabriele Nagel, Aliya Naheed, Gurudatta Naik, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Ionuţ Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Charles R. Newton, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Long Hoang Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Yirga Legesse Nirayo, Molly R Nixon, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh, Peter S. Nyasulu, Okechukwu S. Ogah, In‐Hwan Oh, Andrew T Olagunju, Tinuke O Olagunju, Pedro R. Olivares, Obinna Onwujekwe, Eyal Oren, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Amir H. Pakpour, Wen-Harn Pan, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Jeyaraj Pandian, Sangram Kishor Patel, David M. Pereira, Max Petzold, Julian David Pillay, М. А. Пирадов, Guilherme V. Polanczyk, Suzanne Polinder, Maarten J. Postma, Richie Poulton, Hossein Poustchi, Swayam Prakash, V. Prakash, Mostafa Qorbani, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mahfuzar Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Usha Ram, Annemarei Ranta, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Nickolas Reinig, Cesar Reis, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Shahab Rezaeian, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Carlos Miguel Ríos-González, Nicholas L S Roberts, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Elias Merdassa Roro, Gholamreza Roshandel, Ali Rostami, Parisa Sabbagh, Ralph L. Sacco, Perminder S. Sachdev, Basema Saddik, Hosein Safari, Roya Safari‐Faramani, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Ramesh Sahathevan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Yahya Salimi, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Benn Sartorius, Shahabeddin Sarvi, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Arundhati R Sawant, Monika Sawhney, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Ben Schöttker, David C. Schwebel, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Hosein Shabaninejad, Azadeh Shafieesabet, Masood Ali Shaikh, Raad Shakir, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mehdi Sharif, Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini, Jun She, Aziz Sheikh, Kevin N. Sheth, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Ivy Shiue, Soraya Siabani, Tariq Jamal Siddiqi, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Rannveig Sigurvinsdóttir, Donald H. Silberberg, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Jasvinder A. Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Eirini Skiadaresi, Mari Smith, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Soheila Sobhani, Moslem Soofi, Ireneous N Soyiri, Luciano A. Sposato, Dan J. Stein, Murray B. Stein, Mark A. Stokes, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bryan L. Sykes, PN Sylaja, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Braden Te Ao, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Omar Temsah, Jarnail Singh Thakur, Amanda G. Thrift, Roman Topór-Mądry, Miguel Tortajada‐Girbés, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Bach Xuan Tran, Khanh Bao Tran, Thomas Clement Truelsen, Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik, Lorainne Tudor Car, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Irfan Ullah, Muhammad Usman, Olalekan A. Uthman, Pascual Valdéz, Tommi Vasankari, Vasanthan Rajagopalan, Yousef Veisani, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Kia Vosoughi, Giang Thu Vu, Isidora S Vujcic, Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew, Yasir Waheed, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Jordan Weiss, Harvey Whiteford, Tissa Wijeratne, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Charles Wolfe, Gelin Xu, Ali Yadollahpour, Tomohide Yamada, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Hiroshi Yatsuya, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mahmoud Yousefifard, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Sojib Bin Zaman, Mohammad Zamani, Hamed Zandian, Zohreh Zare, Yunquan Zhang, Sanjay Zodpey, Mohsen Naghavi, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Lancet Neurology · 2019
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicAcute Ischemic Stroke Management
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersEunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human DevelopmentFogarty International CenterNational Human Genome Research InstituteNational Institute of Mental HealthFaculty of Medicine and Health, University of SydneyDipartimento di Medicina e Chirurgia, Università degli Studi di Milano-BicoccaInstitute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia SinicaErasmus Universitair Medisch Centrum RotterdamResearch Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaNational Health and Medical Research CouncilBiomedical Research CouncilAustralian Research CouncilMedical Research CouncilInstitute for Physical Activity and NutritionResearch Institute, Nationwide Children's HospitalUniversity of California, IrvineUniversity of California, San DiegoUniwersytet OpolskiDebre Tabor UniversityUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesAlfaisal UniversityUniversitätsklinikum HeidelbergMoscow Institute of Physics and TechnologyLaboratório Associado para a Química VerdeWestern Sydney UniversityMinistry of Health of the Russian FederationLomonosov Moscow State UniversityAmbo UniversityBispebjerg HospitalUniversidad Autónoma de SinaloaUniversidade Federal de SergipeMuhimbili University of Health and Allied SciencesApplied Molecular Biosciences UnitWageningen University and ResearchSamara UniversityKurdistan University Of Medical SciencesLorestan University of Medical SciencesAlborz University of Medical SciencesUniversity Of Nigeria NsukkaCharotar University of Science and TechnologyAlexandria UniversityNational Center of Neurology and PsychiatryMansoura UniversityInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshNanjing UniversityThe Wellcome Trust DBT India AllianceUniversità degli Studi di MessinaUniversity of PeradeniyaUniversity of GondarGolestan University of Medical SciencesShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesUniversitatea de Medicină şi Farmacie "Carol Davila" BucureştiUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoNational Research University Higher School of EconomicsHjärt-LungfondenCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud MentalGeneralitat ValencianaNational Taiwan UniversityDepartment of Biotechnology, Ministry of Science and Technology, IndiaUniversidad de ChileNIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South LondonVirginia Commonwealth UniversityUniversità di BolognaGöteborgs UniversitetTaipei Medical UniversityUniversity of South AfricaUniversity of the PhilippinesUniversität BielefeldBabol University of Medical SciencesUniversidade de São PauloHacettepe ÜniversitesiUniversitetet i OsloUniversity of New South WalesKermanshah University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Social Welfare and Rehabilitation SciencesFujita Health UniversityFundação Oswaldo CruzNationwide Children's HospitalUniversidad de Costa RicaNational and Kapodistrian University of AthensJazan UniversityGriffith UniversityAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesUmeå UniversitetMinistry of Health and Medical EducationHaramaya UniversityInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliUniversity College LondonUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaKuwait UniversityChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionTampereen YliopistoUniversity of PennsylvaniaTsinghua UniversityEuropean Regional Development FundKarolinska InstitutetJordan University of Science and TechnologyGeorg-August-Universität GöttingenMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadIlam University of Medical SciencesLunds UniversitetSistema Nacional de InvestigadoresNational Institutes of HealthNational University of SingaporeWollega UniversityBanaras Hindu UniversityKyung Hee UniversitySun Yat-sen UniversityMinistarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog RazvojaMinisterio de Educación, Cultura y DeporteKing Saud UniversityMaurice Wilkins Centre for Molecular BiodiscoveryShiraz University of Medical SciencesAin Shams UniversityMedical School, University of MichiganHospital for Sick ChildrenAcademia SinicaSanjay Gandhi Postgraduate Institute of Medical SciencesNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaWuhan UniversityDezful University of Medical SciencesHögskolan DalarnaRijksuniversiteit GroningenMinistério da EducaçãoEli Lilly and CompanyPublic Health AgencyRede de Química e TecnologiaTulane UniversityTartu ÜlikoolSanofi-Aventis DeutschlandUniversity of AucklandUniversitas Negeri SemarangCancer Society of New ZealandUniversità degli Studi di MilanoBayerPomorski Uniwersytet Medyczny W SzczecinieUniversity of OtagoNanyang Technological UniversityBall State UniversityAddis Ababa UniversityUniversità degli Studi di FirenzeUniversidad Autónoma MetropolitanaDepartment of Science and Technology, Ministry of Science and Technology, IndiaPacific Institute for Research and EvaluationQazvin University of Medical SciencesUniversitair Medisch Centrum GroningenAustralian National UniversityUniwersytet Jagielloński Collegium MedicumShiraz UniversityKing's College LondonSree Chitra Tirunal Institute for Medical Sciences and TechnologyCochrane South AfricaUniversity of TorontoHigh Blood Pressure Research Council of AustraliaPublic Health EnglandImperial College LondonJohns Hopkins UniversityUniversity of WarwickJackson State UniversityUniversity of SouthamptonNational Research FoundationNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchAbbott DiagnosticsDirectorate for Biological SciencesPolitechnika CzestochowskaBundesministerium für GesundheitSouth African Medical Research CouncilMashhad University of Medical SciencesSaint Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical CollegeAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungTribhuvan UniversityNIHR Oxford Biomedical Research CentreHorizon PharmaceuticalsUniversität UlmBournemouth UniversityLoma Linda UniversityUniversity of EmbuHealth Research Council of New ZealandUniwersytet ŁódzkiMaragheh University of Medical SciencesUniversity of DhakaUniversiteit StellenboschUniversity of TabrizEuropean CommissionAhmadu Bello UniversityUniversidade do PortoAustralian GovernmentIlam UniversityWellcome TrustKorea UniversityTrường Đại học Duy TânUniversidade Federal de Santa CatarinaUniversity of West FloridaSanofiUniversity of OxfordMcMaster UniversityAksum UniversityUniversity of HullXiamen UniversityNational Institute of Neurological Disorders and StrokeTechnische Universität MünchenUniversité de BourgogneU.S. Department of DefenseUniversity of Technology SydneyYork UniversityYale UniversityJimma UniversityHarvard UniversityDeutsches KrebsforschungszentrumHorizon PharmaIran University of Medical SciencesFudan UniversityCase Western Reserve UniversityNovo NordiskDanmarks GrundforskningsfondDurban University of TechnologyKing Fahd University of Petroleum and MineralsHamad Medical CorporationMedtronicDeakin UniversityBristol-Myers SquibbBASFHelsingin YliopistoAmgenMinistério da Educação e CiênciaBirmingham City UniversityLee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological UniversitySchool of Medicine, Boston UniversityBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungUniversitat de BarcelonaAbbVieStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesFrankfurt University of Applied SciencesLa Trobe UniversityArabian Gulf UniversityKaiser PermanenteAstellas Pharma USBrien Holden Vision InstituteAstraZenecaUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisCelgeneUniversity of Cape TownUniversity of OttawaCurtin University of TechnologyKing Khalid UniversityIsfahan University of Medical SciencesInstituto de Salud Carlos IIISan Diego State UniversityMerck Sharp and DohmeIslamic Azad UniversityWest Virginia UniversityGlaxoSmithKlineUniversidad Nacional de ColombiaNorthwestern UniversityUniversiti Sains MalaysiaHáskólinn í ReykjavíkPfizerBill and Melinda Gates FoundationAustralian Catholic UniversityUniversitat de ValènciaBoehringer IngelheimPublic Health Agency of Canada
KeywordsBurden of diseaseDiseaseMedicineDisease burdenEnvironmental healthPathology
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. METHODS: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247-308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8-9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34-44] and DALYs by 15% [9-21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26-30] and DALYs by 27% [24-31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6-46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7-20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0-12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6-10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05-1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5-90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8-35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8-17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). INTERPRETATION: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.013
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.025
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Systematic review · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.034
Threshold uncertainty score0.067
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.013 | 0.025 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.005 | 0.019 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.025
GPT teacher head0.295
Teacher spread0.270 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSystematic review
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations5,701
Published2019
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes