Brexit’s Protectionist Policy and Implications for the British Pound
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we examine the association among the macroeconomic variables - interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment, and the expected spot rate of the British pound with respect to the Euro around the announcement of “Brexit”, June 2016, using the two international parity relationships, Purchase Power Parity (PPP) and International Fisher effect (IFE). We use the two international parity relationships to examine the significance of change in daily interest rates and monthly inflation rates on the change in actual daily spot rates. In addition, we postulate that the protectionist nature of Brexit policy has contributed to lowering U.K. unemployment and prompted wage growth, resulting in higher inflation rates. Our analysis, examining both the magnitude and directional deviation of the actual spot rate compared to the spot rate using the two parity relations, indicate that spot rates predicted based on the PPP and the IFE relations suggest the weakening of the British pound after the Brexit announcement. Furthermore, we find that U.K. unemployment has reduced due to the expanded monetary policy, consistent with the prediction of the Phillip’s curve.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".