Viral outbreaks involve destabilized evolutionary networks: evidence from Ebola, Influenza and Zika
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Recent history has provided us with one pandemic (Influenza A/H1N1) and two severe viral outbreaks (Ebola and Zika). In all three cases, post-hoc analyses have given us deep insights into what triggered these outbreaks, their timing, evolutionary dynamics, and phylogeography, but the genomic characteristics of outbreak viruses are still unclear. To address this outstanding question, we searched for a common denominator between these recent outbreaks, positing that the genome of outbreak viruses is in an unstable evolutionary state, while that of non-outbreak viruses is stabilized by a network of correlated substitutions. Here, we show that during regular epidemics, viral genomes are indeed stabilized by a dense network of weakly correlated sites, and that these networks disappear during pandemics and outbreaks when rates of evolution increase transiently. Post-pandemic, these evolutionary networks are progressively re-established. We finally show that destabilization is not caused by substitutions targeting epitopes, but more likely by changes in the environment sensu lato. Our results prompt for a new interpretation of pandemics as being associated with evolutionary destabilized viruses.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".