Dynamics and Mass Balance of Penny Ice Cap, Baffin Island, Nunavut, In a Changing Climate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This thesis presents a detailed study of recent changes in the mass balance and dynamics of Penny Ice Cap (PIC), and projects its evolution under a warming climate. Mass losses from 2005-2014 were quantified from airborne altimetry elevation change measurements, and adjusted for vertical ice motion caused by firn compaction and/or ice dynamics. Mass loss from PIC increased four-fold between the mid-1990s (-1.3 ± 0.7 Gt a-1) and 2005-2013 (-5.4 ± 1.9 Gt a-1). The adjustment calculations indicate that mass loss may be overestimated by 19% if vertical motion is not properly accounted for. The velocity response to increased surface melt was quantified using satellite imagery and historical ground measurements from Highway Glacier, on the southern part of PIC. Over the period 1985-2011, the six largest outlet glaciers on the ice cap decelerated at an average rate of 21 m a-1 over the 26 year period (0.81 m a-1), or 12% decade-1. Highway Glacier decelerated by 71% between 1953 and 2009/11. The recent slowdown of outlet glaciers has coincided with increases in mass loss and an inferred reduction in basal sliding. The ice-cap-wide mass balance was modeled from 1958 to 2099 with an enhanced temperature index model. Since the mid-1990s mass balance rates over PIC have become increasingly negative. Peak mass loss is projected to occur in the late 2070s and PIC is expected to lose 16-20% of its 2014 ice volume by 2099 assuming a moderate climate warming scenario (RCP4.5). If a +2°C offset is applied to this scenario, the ice cap is expected to lose 30-40% of its initial ice volume by 2099. These results provide the first comprehensive evaluation of the impact of vertical ice motion on mass loss derived from geodetic measurements over a large Arctic ice cap. The ice velocity record provides insights into the relationship between surface melt rates and glacier motion over the past 30-60 years. This study projects the mass change of the largest ice cap in the southern Canadian Arctic to 2099, calibrated and validated with a wealth of spatially distributed data for the first time.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".