Analytic Decision Analysis via Symbolic Dynamic Programming for Parameterized Hybrid MDPs
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Decision analysis w.r.t. unknown parameters is a critical task in decision-making under uncertainty. For example, we may need to (i) perform inverse learning of the cost parameters of a multi-objective reward based on observed agent behavior; (ii) perform sensitivity analyses of policies to various parameter settings; or (iii) analyze and optimize policy performance as a function of policy parameters. When such problems have mixed discrete and continuous state and/or action spaces, this leads to parameterized hybrid MDPs (PHMDPs) that are often approximately solved via discretization, sampling, and/or local gradient methods (when optimization is involved). In this paper we combine two recent advances that allow for the first exact solution and optimization of PHMDPs. We first show how each of the aforementioned use cases can be formalized as PHMDPs, which can then be solved via an extension of symbolic dynamic programming (SDP) even when the solution is piecewise nonlinear. Secondly, we can leverage recent advances in non-convex solvers that require symbolic forms of the objective function for non-convex global optimization in (i), (ii), and (iii) using SDP to derive symbolic solutions for each PHMDP formalization. We demonstrate the efficacy and scalability of our optimal analytical framework on nonlinear examples of each of the aforementioned use cases.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".