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Record W2761352763

Travel Time Prediction Model for Regional Bus Transit

2009· dissertation· en· W2761352763 on OpenAlexfundno aff
A Wong

Bibliographic record

VenueTSpace (University of Toronto) · 2009
Typedissertation
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicTraffic Prediction and Management Techniques
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersCanadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics
KeywordsTransit (satellite)Transport engineeringComputer scienceEngineeringPublic transport
DOInot available

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Over the past decade, the popularity of regional bus services has grown in large North American cities owing to more people living in suburban areas and commuting to the Central Business District to work every day. Estimating journey time for regional buses is challenging because of the low frequencies and long commuting distances that typically characterize such services. This research project developed a mathematical model to estimate regional bus travel time using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANN outperformed other forecasting methods, namely historical average and linear regression, by an average of 35 and 26 seconds respectively. The ANN results showed, however, overestimation by 40% to 60%, which can lead to travellers missing the bus. An operational strategy is integrated into the model to minimize stakeholders’ costs when the model’s forecast time is later than the scheduled bus departure time. This operational strategy should be varied as the commuting distance decreases.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesMeta-epidemiology (narrow)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.936
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.010
GPT teacher head0.206
Teacher spread0.196 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2009
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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