State size and democratization in hybrid regimes: the Chinese island cities of Macau and Hong Kong
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The effect of state size on level of democratization has been a topic of interest to political scientists. However, studies have largely focused on democratic regimes, leaving unexplored the implications of state size for the regime persistence of hybrid regimes. This article compares two Chinese island cities with hybrid regimes through political analysis supplemented by interviews, and argues that a smaller regime is more likely to be authoritarian than a larger one. The case of Macau shows that the very small size of a 'microstate' helps central authorities to exercise political control, stifle political pluralism, and monopolize opinions, all of which strengthen regime persistence. In contrast, the case of Hong Kong shows that a merely 'small state', a larger political entity, creates political polarization, encourages political competition, and diversifies opinions, resulting in a more confrontational state-society relationship. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the effect of state size on regime persistence in hybrid regimes and explaining political development in Macau and Hong Kong from an alternative geopolitical perspective.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".