Modeling oxythermal stress for cool-water fishes in lakes using a cumulative dosage approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Lake warming can negatively impact cool-water fishes through both temperature and oxygen stress. We modeled the joint dynamics of water column temperature and oxygen to quantify oxythermal habitat for yellow perch (Perca flavescens) in Fish Lake, Wisconsin, USA. To estimate annual oxythermal stress, we developed a novel metric (cumulative oxythermal stress dosage; COSD) that integrates both stress duration and stress magnitude. We find that COSD better predicts observed perch declines than the published TDO3 metric (temperature at depth where dissolved oxygen is 3 mg·L−1), which was developed for cold-water fish. Simulations show increases in COSD between 1911 and 2014, punctuated by a sharp rise since 1989. Extreme COSD years result from the intersection of high maximum daily dosage and prolonged duration exceeding the tolerance threshold. Temperature perturbation experiments to explore future climate scenarios reveal that COSD would increase greatly if the atmosphere warms by >3 °C. Applying the COSD metric broadly to temperate lakes could help direct management efforts toward the ecosystems most likely to serve as climate refugia for cold- and cool-water fishes in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".