Echoes from the abyss: Tentative evidence for Planck-scale structure at black hole horizons
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In classical general relativity (GR), an observer falling into an astrophysical black hole is not expected to experience anything dramatic as she crosses the event horizon. However, tentative resolutions to problems in quantum gravity, such as the cosmological constant problem, or the black hole information paradox, invoke significant departures from classicality in the vicinity of the horizon. It was recently pointed out that such near-horizon structures can lead to late-time echoes in the black hole merger gravitational wave signals that are otherwise indistinguishable from GR. We search for observational signatures of these echoes in the gravitational wave data released by the advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO), following the three black hole merger events GW150914, GW151226, and LVT151012. In particular, we look for repeating damped echoes with time delays of $8M\mathrm{log}M$ ($+\text{spin}$ corrections, in Planck units), corresponding to Planck-scale departures from GR near their respective horizons. Accounting for the ``look elsewhere'' effect due to uncertainty in the echo template, we find tentative evidence for Planck-scale structure near black hole horizons at false detection probability of 1% (corresponding to $2.5\ensuremath{\sigma}$. significance level). Future observations from interferometric detectors at higher sensitivity, along with more physical echo templates, will be able to confirm (or rule out) this finding, providing possible empirical evidence for alternatives to classical black holes, such as in ``firewall'' or ``fuzzball'' paradigms.In this paper, we use 2-tailed Gaussian probability to assign a significance to a p-value, e.g., $1\ensuremath{-}\mathrm{p}\text{-value}=68%$ and 95% correspond to $1\ensuremath{\sigma}$ and $2\ensuremath{\sigma}$, respectively.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it