Measuring the Cost of Financial Integration in the GCC: Lessons from the Global Crisis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In the wake of the global financial crisis, several leading countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) experienced considerable economic slowdown. Equity prices tumbled, bank credit dried up, GDP growth rates came to a halt, spreads on sovereign bonds soared, and risk aversion increased dramatically. These events have demonstrated the negative consequences of financial integration which combined with financial innovation and deregulation have increased vulnerabilities in the GCC and created heightened systemic risks. Using data between 2001 and 2009, we calculate a measure of financial stress for GCC countries and estimate the harm caused by the financia l cris is to the region¡¯s real economy. Our results show that between 2008 and 2009, economic activity in the GCC slowed by 2.6% after controlling for a variety of factors such as oil and stock price movements. We discuss how policymakers can initiate countercyclical policies to stave off the damage from future financial crisis.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".