Geopolitical impact of the development of unconventional hydrocarbons
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Unconventional oil and gas resources are abundant and their production is economically viable. In addition, the geographical distribution of these resources helps to diversify the traditional sources of supply currently highly concentrated in the Middle East and Russia. Stagnation and imminent fall in production of crude oil will make unconventional oil to gain prominence in the future. Over the next decade, its increasing extraction, particularly in the United States and Canada, will help to temporarily weaken the hegemony of the OPEC which nevertheless will regain control of the market shortly after the mid-1920s. Meanwhile, the production of unconventional gas will extend in the future from North America to other parts of the world, consolidating its contribution to the global supply of gas on a long-term basis. The change in the geography of demand, whose centre is moving towards Asia, along with the changes introduced by the unconventional hydrocarbons production in the current balance between exporting and importing countries, will incur a reorganization of the trade flows of oil and natural gas, with implications upon the security of the global supply routes. The United States, which thanks to unconventional oil, achieves the auto-sufficiency in the case of natural gas as well as a low degree of dependence on crude oil imports, is the big beneficiary in the medium term of the so-called unconventional revolution. The European Union, by contrast, will see an increase on its imports and external dependence.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".