A mechanistic nonlinear model for censored and mismeasured covariates in longitudinal models, with application in AIDS studies
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
When modeling longitudinal data, the true values of time-varying covariates may be unknown because of detection-limit censoring or measurement error. A common approach in the literature is to empirically model the covariate process based on observed data and then predict the censored values or mismeasured values based on this empirical model. Such an empirical model can be misleading, especially for censored values since the (unobserved) censored values may behave very differently than observed values due to the underlying data-generation mechanisms or disease status. In this paper, we propose a mechanistic nonlinear covariate model based on the underlying data-generation mechanisms to address censored values and mismeasured values. Such a mechanistic model is based on solid scientific or biological arguments, so the predicted censored or mismeasured values are more reasonable. We use a Monte Carlo EM algorithm for likelihood inference and apply the methods to an AIDS dataset, where viral load is censored by a lower detection limit. Simulation results confirm that the proposed models and methods offer substantial advantages over existing empirical covariate models for censored and mismeasured covariates.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it