THE COUPLING AND DECOUPLING OF BUSINESS CYCLES IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: SCANDINAVIAN EVIDENCE FROM THE EARLY 19TH CENTURY*
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Annual data for Norway, Sweden, the UK and the USA are investigated. What drive business cycle movements is influenced by the availability of a range of macroeconomic time series. The relationship between output movements in Norway, Sweden, the UK and the USA is non‐linear. Large shocks, such as the Great Depression or global conflicts, do get transmitted and there is seemingly little that a chosen monetary policy regime can do to prevent such an outcome. Finally, 19th and 20th century business cycles are different likely due to the introduction of counter‐cyclical policies in all of the countries in our sample.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it