ENSEMBLE PROJECTION OF EXTREME WAVE HEIGHT CHANGE BY CMIP5 BASED WAVE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
気候変動による沿岸域への影響が懸念されており，2012年のIPCC第5次報告書（AR5）以降，波浪の将来変化予測についての成果が発表されている．しかし，平均波高についての将来予測結果が多く，年最大波や数年に一度の高波についての将来予測は少ない．本研究では，様々なアンサンブル予測結果を用いることにより，高波の将来変化を対象に放射強制力，親モデルとなるGCMおよび波浪モデル等による不確実性の評価を行った．さらに海域毎の高波の将来変化特性についても検討を行った．高波の将来変化の空間分布は平均波高の将来変化と類似するが，台風経路の将来変化が重要であることがわかった.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".