Variations in precipitation in North America during the past 2000 years
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present a 2000-year pollen-based reconstruction of total annual precipitation (ANNP) for North America. Application of Local Indices of Spatial Association (LISA) permitted us to distinguish regional large-scale hydroclimate patterns from local site-specific conditions across North America during this time period. Century-scale filtered pollen-based reconstructions are more spatially coherent than unfiltered reconstructions, allowing for better identification of past hydroclimate patterns across North America. Similar spatial patterns dominated during both the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ (MWP; 950–1250 CE) and Roman Warm Period (RWP; 50 BCE–150 CE), although the MWP was generally drier than the RWP. In contrast, hydroclimate changes during Dark Ages Cold Period (DAC; 350–650 CE) and the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; 1550–1850 CE) show opposing patterns across the western and eastern boreal region of North America. During warm periods, eastern and western boreal regions had similar moisture condition, whereas during cold periods, the eastern boreal region was relatively wet and the west was dry.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".