Do immigrants’ funds affect the exchange rate?
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Using annual data over 1966–2014 from the Citizenship and Immigration statistics archives of Canada and constructing a time series for the funds brought into Canada by immigrants, we investigate whether these funds affect the exchange rate of Canada. We employ the ARDL bound testing (Pesaran and Shin, Econometrics and economic theory in the 20th century: The Ragnar Frisch centennial symposium . Cambridge, UK: Cambridge UP, 1999), dynamic OLS (Stock and Watson, Econometrica , 1993, 61, 783) approaches to cointegration. 2SLS and GMM methods are also applied to estimate the portfolio balance models of the exchange rate. Estimated results indicate a long‐run relation between immigrants’ funds and the exchange rate with immigrants' funds leading to a significant appreciation of the exchange rate in Canada. These results are robust to different estimation methods and an alternative proxy measure for the funds brought into Canada by immigrants.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.013 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it