Surprise and destabilize: prediction error influences episodic memory reconsolidation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Through the process of “reconsolidation,” reminders can temporarily destabilize memories and render them vulnerable to change. Recent rodent research has proposed that prediction error, or the element of surprise, is a key component of this process; yet, this hypothesis has never before been extended to complex episodic memories in humans. In our novel paradigm, we used naturalistic stimuli to demonstrate that prediction error enables adaptive updating of episodic memories. In Study 1, participants ( N = 48) viewed 18 videos, each depicting an action–outcome event. The next day, we reactivated these memories by presenting the videos again. We found that incomplete reminders, which interrupted videos before the outcome, made memories vulnerable to subsequent interference from a new set of videos, producing false memories. In Study 2 ( N = 408), an independent sample rated qualities of the stimuli. We found that videos that were more surprising when interrupted produced more false memories. Last, in Study 3 ( N = 24), we tested competing predictions of reconsolidation theory and the Temporal Context Model, an alternative account of source confusion. Consistent with the mechanistic time-course of reconsolidation, our effects were crucially time-dependent. Overall, we synthesize prior animal and human research to present compelling evidence that prediction error destabilizes episodic memories and drives dynamic updating in the face of new information.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".