Multivariate prediction model for suspected giant cell arteritis: development and validation
Classification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose: To develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model for patients with suspected giant cell arteritis (GCA). Methods: A retrospective review of records of consecutive adult patients undergoing temporal artery biopsy (TABx) for suspected GCA was conducted at seven university centers. The pathologic diagnosis was considered the final diagnosis. The predictor variables were age, gender, new onset headache, clinical temporal artery abnormality, jaw claudication, ischemic vision loss (VL), diplopia, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and platelet level. Multiple imputation was performed for missing data. Logistic regression was used to compare our models with the non-histologic American College of Rheumatology (ACR) GCA classification criteria. Internal validation was performed with 10-fold cross validation and bootstrap techniques. External validation was performed by geographic site. Results: There were 530 complete TABx records: 397 were negative and 133 positive for GCA. Age, jaw claudication, VL, platelets, and log CRP were statistically significant predictors of positive TABx, whereas ESR, gender, headache, and temporal artery abnormality were not. The parsimonious model had a cross-validated bootstrap area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.810 (95% CI =0.766–0.854), geographic external validation AUROC’s in the range of 0.75–0.85, calibration p H–L of 0.812, sensitivity of 43.6%, and specificity of 95.2%, which outperformed the ACR criteria. Conclusion: Our prediction rule with calculator and nomogram aids in the triage of patients with suspected GCA and may decrease the need for TABx in select low-score at-risk subjects. However, misclassification remains a concern. Keywords: temporal artery biopsy, diagnosis, prediction rule, nomogram, giant cell arteritis, validation
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it