Developing a Random Forest Algorithm for MODIS Global Burned Area Classification
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper aims to develop a global burned area (BA) algorithm for MODIS BRDF-corrected images based on the Random Forest (RF) classifier. Two RF models were generated, including: (1) all MODIS reflective bands; and (2) only the red (R) and near infrared (NIR) bands. Active fire information, vegetation indices and auxiliary variables were taken into account as well. Both RF models were trained using a statistically designed sample of 130 reference sites, which took into account the global diversity of fire conditions. For each site, fire perimeters were obtained from multitemporal pairs of Landsat TM/ETM+ images acquired in 2008. Those fire perimeters were used to extract burned and unburned areas to train the RF models. Using the standard MD43A4 resolution (500 × 500 m), the training dataset included 48,365 burned pixels and 6,293,205 unburned pixels. Different combinations of number of trees and number of parameters were tested. The final RF models included 600 trees and 5 attributes. The RF full model (considering all bands) provided a balanced accuracy of 0.94, while the RF RNIR model had 0.93. As a first assessment of these RF models, they were used to classify daily MCD43A4 images in three test sites for three consecutive years (2006–2008). The selected sites included different ecosystems: Australia (Tropical), Boreal (Canada) and Temperate (California), and extended coverage (totaling more than 2,500,000 km2). Results from both RF models for those sites were compared with national fire perimeters, as well as with two existing BA MODIS products; the MCD45 and MCD64. Considering all three years and three sites, commission error for the RF Full model was 0.16, with an omission error of 0.23. For the RF RNIR model, these errors were 0.19 and 0.21, respectively. The existing MODIS BA products had lower commission errors, but higher omission errors (0.09 and 0.33 for the MCD45 and 0.10 and 0.29 for the MCD64) than those obtained with the RF models, and therefore they showed less balanced accuracies. The RF models developed here should be applicable to other biomes and years, as they were trained with a global set of reference BA sites.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".