Syncope Prognosis Based on Emergency Department Diagnosis: A Prospective Cohort Study
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Relatively little is known about outcomes after disposition among syncope patients assigned various diagnostic categories during emergency department (ED) evaluation. We sought to measure the outcomes among these groups within 30 days of the initial ED visit. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adult syncope patients at six EDs and excluded patients with presyncope, persistent mental status changes, intoxication, seizure, and major trauma. Patient characteristics, ED management, diagnostic impression (presumed vasovagal, orthostatic, cardiac, or other/unknown) at the end of the ED visit, and physicians' confidence in assigning the etiology were collected. Serious outcomes at 30 days included death, arrhythmia, myocardial infarction, structural heart disease, pulmonary embolism, and hemorrhage. RESULTS: A total of 5,010 patients (mean ± SD age = 53.4 ± 23.0 years; 54.8% females) were enrolled; 3.5% suffered serious outcomes-deaths (0.3%), arrhythmias (1.8%), nonarrhythmic cardiac (0.5%), and noncardiac (0.9%) including pulmonary embolism (0.2%). The cause of syncope was presumed as vasovagal among 53.3% and cardiac in 5.4% of patients. The proportion of patients with ED investigations (p < 0.001) and short-term serious outcomes (p < 0.01) increased in each diagnostic category in the following order: presumed vasovagal, orthostatic hypotension, other/unknown cause, and cardiac. No deaths occurred in patients with presumed vasovagal syncope. A higher proportion of all serious outcomes occurred among patients suspected of cardiac syncope in the ED (p < 0.01). Confidence was highest among physicians for a presumed vasovagal syncope diagnosis and lowest when the cause was other/unknown. CONCLUSION: Short-term serious outcomes strongly correlated with the etiology assigned in the ED visit. The importance of the physician's clinical judgment should be further studied to determine if it should become incorporated in risk-stratification tools for prognostication and safe management of ED syncope patients.
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Direct model labels (unvalidated)
Per-model category and study-design labels from the labeling rounds. They are machine output, unvalidated, and the disagreement between models ships as data. No study design here is MEDLINE-validated yet.
| Model arm | Categories | Study design | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| gemma | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
| gpt | no category Domain: not available · Genre: Empirical About the Canadian research system: no · About a Canadian topic: no | Observational | low |
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it