Business Forecasting of Double‐trend Time Series: An Improved PLS‐based Time‐varying Weight Combination Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Business forecasting with double‐trend time series (long‐term trends and seasonal volatility) has been challenging due to its complexity. Neither a single time series model nor a fixed‐weight combination approach can fully capture the comprehensive information. We address this issue by proposing an improved partial least squares (PLS) based time‐varying weight combination approach. The proposed method can handle the relations both between the single models involved and between single models and time ordering with time‐varying weights. The test on 20 simulated datasets demonstrates the better and more robust performance of the method. We also apply it to three real datasets. The results show that our approach represents a significant improvement over the existing methods in terms of data fitness and prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2017 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.009 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.008 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".