Bibliographic record
Abstract
The information in this forecast is gathered by the Journal from sources it considers reliable. Neither the Journal nor the individual institutions providing the data guarantee accuracy; nor do any of them warrant in any way that use of the data appearing herein will enhance the business or investment performance of companies or individuals who use them. Jack Malehorn is a professor at Georgia Military College (Milledgeville, Georgia). He is on the Editorial Review Board to the Journal of Business Forecasting. He has worked as President and CEO of The Black Hill Manufacturing Co., and COO of NorCom Advanced Technologies. He has also worked as Chief Economist for United Telephone Company of Pennsylvania and New Jersey, which is an operating company of Sprint. He has taught as an Adjunct Professor at Johns-Hopkins University, Graduate School of Business. For any comments and suggestions, contact him by email at Jmalehorn@yahoo.com.PARTICIPANTS | Beacon Economics= LA, California; Conf Board = Conference Board, New York, New York; Global Insight = Global Insight, Eddystone, Pennsylvania; GSU - EFC = Georgia State University, Economic Forecasting Center, Atlanta, Georgia; Moody's Economy = Moody's Economy.com, Westchester, Pennsylvania; Mortgage = Mortgage Bankers Association, Washington, D.C.; NAM = National Association of Manufacturers, Washington, D.C.; Northern Tr= Northern Trust Company, Chicago, Illinois; PerrymanGp =ThePerryman Group, Waco, Texas; Royal Bank of Canada, Canada; SP U.S. Bank = Minneapolis, MN; US Chamber = U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Washington, D.C.; Wells Fargo = Wells Fargo Bank, San Francisco, California.From all indications, the U.S. economy seems to be moving sideways.The Consensus Outlook is calling for subdued growth over the next four quarters. Reasons forthisinclude,butarenotlimitedto,thedebtcrisisin Europe, a significant slowdown in the Chinese economy, and a lack of enthusiasm exhibited by both consumers and businesses in general. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business notes, in particular, slow personal income growth and weak job creation as main contributing factors. However, Dr. Dhawan does not believe the economy will fall victim to a crash landing; instead, he thinks it will settle into a sustained relatively slow growth period. Dr. Ray Perryman believes global disturbances continue to pose a risk for the U.S. economy and overall momentum is lagging to some extent. Nonetheless, the recovery appears to be in a sustainable recovery mode that will likely persist for the near future. John Silvia, Chief Economist for Wells Fargo, cited recent weak job numbers that reinforce the view that the U.S. economy will move forward at a subpar pace of growth into the foreseeable future. While Silvia does not expect a collapse of the U.S. economy in light of this reduced growth scenario, he points out that households, private businesses, and government will continue to restructure to be even more efficient. …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.013 | 0.008 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.011 | 0.006 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".