Assessing Alternative Scenarios for the Cause of Underpressures in the Ordovician Sediments along the Eastern Flank of the Michigan Basin
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Geoscientific investigations for a proposed deep geologic repository at the Bruce Site, located on the eastern flank of the Michigan Basin, have identified unique and significant underpressured conditions. Along with the measurement of environmental tracer profiles (e.g., helium), this study aims to explore, through a series of numerical simulations, the nature of long-term phenomena responsible for the generation and preservation of formation underpressures. Three families of inverse numerical experiments for underpressure formation were examined by means of one-dimensional hydromechanically coupled models through the vertical hydrostratigraphic column: (i) uncertainty in glaciation scenarios; (ii) uncertainty in initial heads prior to glaciation; and (iii) uncertainty in the degree of hydraulic connectivity between the more permeable Guelph Formation at the Bruce Site and the applied glacial loading, for a total of 20 scenarios, assuming fully saturated conditions. Underpressured initial heads for the paleohydrogeologic simulations lead to lower calibrated vertical hydraulic conductivities. The robustness and resilience of the groundwater system to external perturbations are greater for the state where underpressured conditions predate the onset of glaciation and are better able to preserve the present day helium tracer profile in 260 Ma exhumation analyses.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it