Variations in the Gender Ratio of Multiple Sclerosis Linked to Converging Smoking Trends in Men and Women
Bibliographic record
Abstract
[S40.001] Variations in the Gender Ratio of Multiple Sclerosis Linked to Converging Smoking Trends in Men and Women Natalia Palacios, Boston, MA, Alvaro Alonso, Minneapolis, MN, Henrik Bronnum-Hansen, Coppenhagen, Denmark, Alberto Ascherio, Boston, MA OBJECTIVE: To examine if a time-dependent relationship exists between changing female-to male ratios of smoking and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) in worldwide birth cohorts from previously published studies. BACKGROUND: Smoking behavior in industrialized nations has changed dramatically over the second half of the 20th century, with diverging patterns in male and female smoking rates. During the same time period, an increase in the female to male ratio in MS incidence has been reported. We examined whether MS incidence in the two genders changed concomitantly with smoking, as would be expected if smoking truly increased MS risk. DESIGN/METHODS: We identified relevant studies reporting male and female age-specific incidence of MS throughout the world using within-country birth cohorts as units of observation. For each country and birth cohort, we then estimated the male to female ratio in MS incidence, and correlated these ratios with the corresponding male to female ratios in smoking behavior obtained from national statistics. In addition, in separate analyses we also examined in depth the within-country trends of smoking and MS for two populations in which statistics on MS are readily available: Canada and Denmark. RESULTS: We show that the gender ratio of MS is correlated with the gender ratio of smoking (r = 0.12, 95% CI: 0.02, 0.22; p = 0.02). This correlation supports an overall incidence rate ratio of 1.40 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.89) of MS for ever smokers as compared with never smokers. Furthermore, our within-country analyses of smoking and MS trends in Canada and Denmark show that, depending on model assumptions, smoking could explain 20 to 89% of the change in the female to male ratios of MS. CONCLUSIONS/RELEVANCE: Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that smoking increases the risk of MS. Smoking trends might partially explain changes in the MS gender ratio. Supported by: Dr. Ascherio: funding for studies of MS from NIH/NINDS. Natalia Palacios: Training Program in Environmental Epidemiology funded under grant no. T32 ES07069. The Danish Multiple Sclerosis Society finances the Danish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Category - MS and Related Diseases - Clinical Science Wednesday, April 14, 2010 4:15 PM Scientific Sessions: Multiple Sclerosis: Epidemiology (4:15 PM-5:30 PM)
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".