Which Version Should Be Released to App Store?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Several mobile app releases do not find their way to the end users. Our analysis of 11,514 releases across 917 open source mobile apps revealed that 44.3% of releases created in GitHub never shipped to the app store (market). Aims: We introduce "marketability" of open source mobile apps as a new release decision problem. Considering app stores as a complex system with unknown treatments, we evaluate performance of predictive models and analogical reasoning for marketability decisions. Method: We performed a survey with 22 release engineers to identify the importance of marketability release decision. We compared different classifiers to predict release marketability. For guiding the transition of not successfully marketable releases into successful ones, we used analogical reasoning. We evaluated our results both internally (over time) and externally (by developers). Results: Random forest classification performed best with F1 score of 78%. Analyzing 58 releases over time showed that, for 81% of them, analogical reasoning could correctly identify changes in the majority of release attributes. A survey with seven developers showed the usefulness of our method for supporting real world decisions. Conclusions: Marketability decisions of mobile apps can be supported by using predictive analytics and by considering and adopting similar experience from the past.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.054 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".