Use of a baseline risk score to identify the risk of serious infectious events in patients with rheumatoid arthritis during certolizumab pegol treatment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The risk of serious infectious events (SIEs) is increased in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of this study was to develop an age-adjusted comorbidity index (AACI) to predict, using baseline characteristics, the SIE risk in patients with RA treated with certolizumab pegol (CZP). METHODS: Data of CZP-treated patients with RA were pooled from the RAPID1/RAPID2 randomized controlled trials (RCT CZP) and their open-label extensions (All CZP). Predictors of the first SIE were examined using multivariate Cox models. The AACI was developed by assigning specific weights to patient age and comorbidities on the basis of relative SIE risk. SIE rates were predicted using AACI score and baseline glucocorticoid use, and they were compared with observed rates. The percentage of patients in each SIE risk group achieving low disease activity (LDA)/remission was examined at 1 year of treatment. RESULTS: Among 1224 RCT CZP patients, 40 reported ≥ 1 SIE (incidence rate [IR] 5.09/100 patient-years [PY]), and 201 of 1506 All CZP patients reported ≥ 1 SIE (IR 3.66/100 PY). Age ≥ 70 years, diabetes mellitus, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma made the greatest contributions to AACI score. SIE rates predicted using AACI and glucocorticoid use at baseline showed good agreement with observed SIE rates across low-risk and high-risk groups. At 1 year, more high-risk All CZP patients than low-risk All CZP patients reported SIEs (IR 8.4/100 PY vs. IR 3.4/100 PY). Rates of LDA/remission were similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: AACI and glucocorticoid use were strong baseline predictors of SIE risk in CZP-treated patients with RA. Predicted SIE risk was not associated with patients' likelihood of clinical response. This SIE risk score may provide a valuable tool for clinicians when considering the risk of infection in individual patients with RA. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00152386 (registered 7 September 2005); NCT00160602 (registered 8 September 2005); NCT00175877 (registered 9 September 2005); and NCT00160641 (registered 8 September 2005).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.012 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".