Population Change and Population Health: A Spatio-temporal Analysis of New Brunswick Communities
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper considers population change in small areas of New Brunswick in relation to community-level population health indicators. Population forecasts developed via regionally constrained models are presented in conjunction with health indicators data for health zones and health council communities. Temporal and spatial variation in health indicators is discussed in relation to where population growth is forecasted to occur, and where there will be continued population decline. The results show that population growth is forecasted only for the areas surrounding Fredericton, Moncton, and Saint John, with most other areas predicted to experience continued population decline, even if the province as a whole does not. These forecasts are within a context where communities with declining population are also those with lower values across a range of non-medical determinants of health. These results present an opportunity to focus provincial strategies based on the combination of observed trends of population change and geographic inequalities of population health.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it