Change in nutrient loading pattern due to coupled effect of change in concentration and hydroclimatic forces
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Increase in nutrient loading into large riverine systems is of interest because of long-lasting negative effects on downstream water bodies. We know little of this phenomenon with respect to long-term relationships between water quality metrics and trends in river flow. Here we present a multi-decadal (1937–2014) examination of nutrient transport patterns of the South Saskatchewan and Red Deer Rivers, Canada. Using a multi-method approach, we show a slightly increasing trend in annual volume of water reaching a mid-watershed reservoir (Lake Diefenbaker) concomitant with a change in seasonal variability of flow events from the 1970s. Both total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) flux increased during the period of record. TN concentration increased, while TP concentration decreased. On average, the high-flow season transported 95% of annual TP flux, 75% of annual TN flux, and 65% of annual flow. Inter-annually, high-flow season contributions decreased with respect to water volume, but increased with respect to both TN and TP flux. We believe that changes in variability but also timing of hydroclimatic forces are responsible for observed patterns. Higher flows and more precipitation during the high-flow season are most likely responsible for increasing nutrient load regardless of overall decreases in nutrient concentration.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".