Power Estimation of Multiple Two-State Loads Using A Probabilistic Non-Intrusive Approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper investigates a non-intrusive approach of retrieving electric space heater (ESH) power profiles from a residential aggregated signal. In cold-climate regions with heating appliances controlled by electronic thermostats, an accurate non-intrusive recognition of power profiles is a challenging task. Accordingly, a robust disaggregation approach based on the difference factorial hidden Markov model (DFHMM) and the Kronecker operation is contributed. The proposed method aims to uncover the underlying stochastic tow-state models of ESHs using their common prior knowledge. The major advantage of the developed load-monitoring architecture consists of modeling simplicity and inference as well as load-detection efficacy in the presence of perturbations from other unknown loads. The experimental results prove the effectiveness of the method in manipulating the challenging case of multiple two-state loads with a high event overlapping probability.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".