Lack of Early Improvement Predicts Poor Outcome Following Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: There are limited data as to what degree of early neurologic change best relates to outcome in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. We aimed to derive and validate a threshold for early postintracerebral hemorrhage change that best predicts 90-day outcomes. DESIGN: Derivation: retrospective analysis of collated clinical stroke trial data (Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive). VALIDATION: retrospective analysis of a prospective multicenter cohort study (Prediction of haematoma growth and outcome in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage using the CT-angiography spot sign [PREDICT]). SETTING: Neurocritical and ICUs. PATIENTS: Patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage presenting less than 6 hours. Derivation: 552 patients; validation: 275 patients. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We generated a receiver operating characteristic curve for the association between 24-hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale change and clinical outcome. The primary outcome was a modified Rankin Scale score of 4-6 at 90 days; secondary outcomes were other modified Rankin Scale score ranges (modified Rankin Scale, 2-6, 3-6, 5-6, 6). We employed Youden's J Index to select optimal cut points and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. We determined independent predictors via multivariable logistic regression. The derived definitions were validated in the PREDICT cohort. Twenty-four-hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale change was strongly associated with 90-day outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75. Youden's method showed an optimum cut point at -0.5, corresponding to National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale change of greater than or equal to 0 (a lack of clinical improvement), which was seen in 46%. Early neurologic change accurately predicted poor outcome when defined as greater than or equal to 0 (sensitivity, 65%; specificity, 73%; positive predictive value, 70%; adjusted odds ratio, 5.05 [CI, 3.25-7.85]) or greater than or equal to 4 (sensitivity, 19%; specificity, 98%; positive predictive value, 91%; adjusted odds ratio, 12.24 [CI, 4.08-36.66]). All definitions reproduced well in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Lack of clinical improvement at 24 hours robustly predicted poor outcome and showed good discrimination for individual patients who would do poorly. These findings are useful for prognostication and may also present as a potential early surrogate outcome for future intracerebral hemorrhage treatment trials.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.016 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".