Does herpes zoster predispose to giant cell arteritis: a geo-epidemiologic study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Purpose: Giant cell arteritis (GCA) is the most common systemic vasculitis in the elderly and can cause irreversible blindness and aortitis. Varicella zoster (VZ), which is potentially preventable by vaccination, has been proposed as a possible immune trigger for GCA, but this is controversial. The incidence of GCA varies widely by country. If VZ virus contributes to the immunopathogenesis of GCA we hypothesized that nations with increased incidence of GCA would also have increased incidence of herpes zoster (HZ). We conducted an ecologic analysis to determine the relationship between the incidence of HZ and GCA in different countries. Methods: A literature search for the incidence rates (IRs) of GCA and HZ from different countries was conducted. Correlation and linear regression was performed comparing the disease IR of each country for subjects 50 years of age or older. Results: We found the IR for GCA and HZ from 14 countries. Comparing the IRs for GCA and HZ in 50-year-olds, the Pearson product-moment correlation ( r ) was -0.51, with linear regression coefficient (β) -2.92 (95% CI -5.41, -0.43; p =0.025) using robust standard errors. Comparing the IRs for GCA and HZ in 70-year-olds, r was -0.40, with β -1.78, which was not statistically significant (95% CI -4.10, 0.53; p =0.12). Conclusion: Although this geo-epidemiologic study has potential for aggregation and selection biases, there was no positive biologic gradient between the incidence of clinically evident HZ and GCA. Keywords: epidemiology, shingles, temporal arteritis, immunopathogenesis
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".