Asymmetric Behavior in Nominal and Real Housing Prices: Evidence from Emerging and Advanced Economies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this article, we investigate asymmetry in nominal and real housing price series from eleven emerging and twenty advanced economies using the nonparametric Triples test (Randles et al., 1980), which allows identification of different types of asymmetries in economic cycles. We find asymmetry in fewer emerging than advanced economies. In more than half of the latter, nominal prices reach peaks faster than troughs (positive steepness asymmetry), suggesting the presence of downward nominal rigidities. Nominal price asymmetry is found only in slightly over a quarter of the emerging economies. Hence, nominal housing price increases are more likely to be followed by symmetric price falls in emerging than in advanced countries. Regarding real housing prices, peaks are higher than troughs (positive deepness asymmetry) in half of the advanced economies, suggesting the presence of price overshooting during booms, but less undershooting during busts. Weaker evidence of similar asymmetry is found in emergi...
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".