Five decades of healthcare simulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper we have not attempted to produce any kind of systematic review of simulation in healthcare to compete with the dozen (at least) excellent and comprehensive survey papers on this topic that already exist. We begin with a glance back at the early days of Wintersim, but then proceed, in line with the theme of this special track, to reflect on general developments in healthcare simulation over the years from our own personal perspectives. We include some memories and reflections by several pioneers in this area, both academics and healthcare practitioners, on both sides of the Atlantic. We also asked four current simulation modelers, who all specialize in healthcare applications but from very diverse perspectives, to reflect on their experiences. We endeavor to identify some common or recurring themes across the years, and end with a glimpse into the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.031 | 0.061 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.010 | 0.011 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.010 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".