What Has Controlled the Poleward Migration of Annual Averaged Location of Tropical Cyclone Lifetime Maximum Intensity Over the Western North Pacific Since 1961?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The long‐term tendency of the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated in this study. Despite the post‐1961 significant poleward shift in the annual mean LMI latitude, the migration rate is nonuniform on decadal timescales, having an insignificant trend and a significant increasing trend before and after 1980, respectively. Interdecadal fluctuations of TC genesis latitude (φG) as well as increases in latitudinal distance between genesis position and LMI location (Δφ) are both responsible for the observed LMI latitude trends. The former is linked to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which favors TCs forming in the northwestern (southeastern) quadrant of the WNP in negative (positive) IPO phases. The latter primarily results from the continuous warming of WNP sea surface temperature, which further increases the maximum potential intensity and extends the region favorable for TC development to higher latitudes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".