Protected Turning Movements of Noncooperative Automated Vehicles: Geometrics, Trajectories, and Saturation Flow
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study is the first to quantify throughput (saturation flow) of noncooperative automated vehicles when performing turning maneuvers, which are critical bottlenecks in arterial road networks. We first develop a constrained optimization problem based on AVs’ kinematic behavior during a protected signal phase which considers both ABS-enabled and wheels-locked braking, as well as avoiding encroaching into oncoming traffic or past the edge-of-receiving-lane. We analyze noncooperative (“defensive”) behavior, in keeping with the Assured Clear Distance Ahead legal standard to which human drivers are held and AVs will likely also be for the foreseeable future. We demonstrate that, under plausible behavioral parameters, AVs appear likely to have positive impacts on throughput of turning traffic streams at intersections, in the range of +0.2% (under the most conservative circumstances) to +43% for a typical turning maneuver. We demonstrate that the primary mechanism of impact of turning radius is its effect on speed, which is likely to be constrained by passenger comfort. We show heterogeneous per-lane throughput in the case of “double turn lanes.” Finally, we demonstrate limited sensitivity to crash-risk criterion, with a 4% difference arising from a change from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000,000. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of policy implications and future research needs.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".