Fishery collapse, recovery, and the cryptic decline of wild salmon on a major California river
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from the Sacramento–San Joaquin River system form the backbone of California’s salmon fishery and are heavily subsidized through hatchery production. Identifying temporal trends in the relative contribution of hatchery- versus wild-spawned salmon is vital for assessing the status and resiliency of wild salmon populations. Here, we reconstructed the proportion of hatchery fish on natural spawning grounds in the Feather River, a major tributary to the Sacramento River, using strontium isotope (87Sr/86Sr) ratios of otoliths collected during carcass surveys from 2002 to 2010. Our results show that prior to the 2007–2008 salmon stock collapse, 55%–67% of in-river spawners were of hatchery origin; however, hatchery contributions increased drastically (89%) in 2010 following the collapse. Data from a recent hatchery marking program corroborate our results, showing that hatchery fish continued to dominate (∼90%) in 2011–2012. Though the rebound in abundance of salmon in the Feather River suggests recovery of the stock postcollapse, our otolith chemistry data document a persistent decline of wild spawners, likely leading to the erosion of locally adapted Feather River salmon populations.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".