An Hour Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine and Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Predicting electricity price has now become an important task in power system operation and planning. An hour-ahead forecast provides market participants with the pre-dispatch prices for the next hour. It is beneficial for an active bidding strategy where amount of bids can be reviewed or modified before delivery hours. However, only a few studies have been conducted in the field of hour-ahead forecasting. This is due to most power markets apply two-settlement market structure (day-ahead and real time) or standard market design rather than single-settlement system (real time). Therefore, a hybrid multi-optimization of Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) and Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm (BFOA) was designed in this study to produce accurate electricity price forecasts with optimized LSSVM parameters and input features. So far, no works has been established on multistage feature and parameter optimization using LSSVM-BFOA for hour-ahead price forecast. The model was examined on the Ontario power market. A huge number of features were selected by five stages of optimization to avoid from missing any important features. The developed LSSVM-BFOA shows higher forecast accuracy with lower complexity than most of the existing models.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".