An Hour Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting with Least Square Support Vector Machine and Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
<span lang="EN-US">Predicting electricity price has now become an important task in power system operation and planning. An hour-ahead forecast provides market participants with the pre-dispatch prices for the next hour. It is beneficial for an active bidding strategy where amount of bids can be reviewed or modified before delivery hours. However, only a few studies have been conducted in the field of hour-ahead forecasting. This is due to most power markets apply two-settlement market structure (day-ahead and real time) or standard market design rather than single-settlement system (real time). Therefore, a hybrid multi-optimization of Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) and Bacterial Foraging Optimization Algorithm (BFOA) was designed in this study to produce accurate electricity price forecasts with optimized LSSVM parameters and input features. So far, no works has been established on multistage feature and parameter optimization using LSSVM-BFOA for hour-ahead price forecast. The model was examined on the Ontario power market. A huge number of features were selected by five stages of optimization to avoid from missing any important features. The developed LSSVM-BFOA shows higher forecast accuracy with lower complexity than most of the existing models.</span>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it