Beyond the snapshot: Landscape genetic analysis of time series data reveal responses of American black bears to landscape change
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Landscape genetic studies typically focus on the evolutionary processes that give rise to spatial patterns that are quantified at a single point in time. Although landscape change is widely recognized as a strong driver of microevolutionary processes, few landscape genetic studies have directly evaluated the change in spatial genetic structure (SGS) over time with concurrent changes in landscape pattern. We introduce a novel approach to analyze landscape genetic data through time. We demonstrate this approach using genotyped samples (n = 569) from a large black bear (Ursus americanus) population in Michigan (USA) that were harvested during 3 years (2002, 2006, and 2010). We identified areas that were consistently occupied over this 9‐year period and quantified temporal variation in SGS. Then, we evaluated alternative hypotheses about effects of changes in landscape features (e.g., deforestation or crop conversion) on fine‐scale SGS among years using spatial autoregressive modeling and model selection. Relative measures of landscape change such as magnitude of landscape change (i.e., number of patches changing from suitable to unsuitable states or vice versa), and during later periods, measures of fragmentation (i.e., patch aggregation and cohesion) were associated with change in SGS. Our results stress the importance of conducting time series studies for the conservation and management of wildlife inhabiting rapidly changing landscapes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".